In The Loop – November 18, 2022

Consensus Revenue Estimates – What They Are and How to Interpret the Projections

It was announced last week that the streak of windfall budgets has been extended even longer with revenue estimates that estimate a surplus in the budget.

The projections were confirmed through a process called the Consensus Revenue Estimates where the executive and legislative branch compare their budget projection numbers and reach an agreement on the most accurate amount based on all the data points.

Why is this an important part of the process? It may seem anti-climactic now to have separate branches of government project the budget deficit or surplus, but that is mostly because the state has had one-party rule since 2011.

Before 2011, the Governor and legislature were more often than not different political parties which meant that it was more of a challenge to determine the actual budget projections. This all came to a head when Governor Rell in 2009 was faced with a stark deficit amid the Great Recession and was tasked with proposing a budget to the legislature. Governor Rell’s budget was proposed on time however it contained a $2B gap in what the legislature forecasted the deficit to be at the time…… KEEP READING.