In The Loop – November 1, 2024
The Day After the Election
I’m sometimes asked by clients to offer bold predictions on the state elections to help forecast the balance of power going into the next legislative biennium.
Every team member at S&L is a loyal political prognosticator with educated guesses based on general themes both statewide and nationally. That said, this election cycle remains one of the most wildly unpredictable elections given the inflammatory last few months of the presidential race which has featured at least three “October surprises”: An assassination attempt on former President Trump, President Biden withdrawing his name from the ballot and a rally a week before the election with a speaker calling a US Territory a “floating piece of garbage”.
Educated guesses are still unfortunately guesses so I’ve instead offered the top questions you should be asking your S&L team lead on November 6th. Remember, you’ll have a full election update sent to you that day but here are the major items that should interest you in Connecticut:
Will the Senate Democrats Maintain, or even grow, their majority in the State?
Currently, the Senate Democrats hold a 24-12 super majority in Connecticut but there are four very close races according to polling released that could shift that balance dramatically. If the Senate Democrats gain seats in the 2024 election cycle, it would send a strong message specifically to Governor Lamont’s administration that legislation negotiated within the caucus could technically override a veto if all Democrats were aligned in support.
What are the “mandate” issues that legislators are running on that will be the top priorities of 2025?
Legislators who win their races often outline priority initiatives as a “mandate” dictating by the voters who elected them to office. It’s fair to say the major themes that both Democrats and Republicans will be immediately asked to address are (1) The rising rates of electricity, (2) Housing affordability, (3) If the state should amend its “fiscal guardrails” and (4) The costs of both prescription drugs and health insurance.
Are there outcomes that will create special elections in Connecticut?
Short answer – Yes. If Vice President Harris wins, there is a possibility U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (also up for reelection Tuesday) may be tapped for a role in the White House which would create a special election that would take place 180 days after he vacates the seat. There will also likely be state legislators elected who are either recruited to work for the Lamont Administration or that seek otherpositions that would trigger a special election 6 weeks after they vacate the seat.
What will the new demographic of legislators look like next year?
This cycle has seen record number of Generation “Y” and “Z” candidates (people that are younger than 41). It’s safe to assume more of those candidates will represent state districts which will definitely affect outreach and ways of making your message more appealing to lawmakers. As always, S&L has factored-in this inevitable shift into both messaging and outreach with lawmakers who will react differently to overall priorities.
How many incumbents will not be returning?
This question is important and is by far the hardest to predict ahead of the race. Here are two facts that seem to contradict each other based on past trends: (1) There was an unusually low amount of lawmakers not seeking reelection and (2) The first election cycle after a redistricting election-year tends to see a large amount of movement due to opponents changing each two-year term. We’ll report the numbers that are available the next day but would expect there to be a minimum of about 20-25 brand new lawmakers in seats.
When will the “Too Close to Call” races be resolved?
Connecticut law requires an automatic recount of any election that has a less than .5% margin between the two candidates. Normally, Connecticut has about 3-5 races each cycle which also includes elections where the candidate refuses to concede. Fortunately, Connecticut requires any recount to take place within a week after the election date and certified thereafter. One can only hope that the next President of the United States is decided as quickly!
Good luck to those following races both locally and nationally and we’ll see you next week!